Our Year-to-Date leader has held the spot for 12 calendar days now, and leads its nearest rival by over a full percentage point, so it's time to announce it:
It is Janus Contrarian, up 3.40%.
In last place at #30 is Royce Special Equity down 1.96%.
We currently have 15 funds up, 14 funds down, and one unchanged for the year so far.
The Moron is willing to make one sure-fire, absolute, can't miss prediction to his loyal followers (both of them):
By the end of the year, Royce Special Equity will NOT be in last place. (You heard it here first and you can take it to the bank.)
And remember, the Moron always bats 1.000 on his official predictions!
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Final Numbers for 2013
And the Moron called the results in 2012 "gaudy"? 2012 pales in comparison to the gains we saw in 2013.
2013 was a year in which stocks hugely outperformed bonds or cash, so funds that were fully invested in equities show up at the top. It was a year in which domestic (USA) stocks outperformed foreign stocks, so foreign and international funds are found low on the list. It was a year in which small and mid-cap stocks outperformed larger stocks. Finally, it was a year in which quality shares tended to underperform, and in which more speculative fare tended to outperform.
All in all, it was the best year for US stocks in nearly 20 years.
MFM Fund of the Year? Ariel Fund. Congratulations to John Rogers and the team.
2013 Final Standings
Top 10
1. Ariel +44.68%
2. Kinetics Paradigm 44.07
3. Bridgeway Aggressive 42.21
4. Franklin Sm-Mid Cap 38.58
5. Janus Contrarian 38.51
6. TRP Mid Cap Growth 36.89
7. Franklin Balance Sheet 36.61
8. Col. Val. & Restructg 35.96
9. Mairs & Power Grwth 35.64
10. Fairholme 35.54
The Great Unwashed (#11-20)
11. Sequoia 34.58
12.Fidelity Contra 34.15
13. Osterweis 33.84
14. VTSMX 33.52
15. Jenson Qty. Grwth 32.33
16. VDIGX 31.53
17. FMI Large Cap 30.48
18. Templeton Grwth 30.15
19. Royce Special Equity 29.36
20. TRP Spectrum Grwth 28.59
The Bottom Ten
21. Mutual Shares 28.10
22. Yacktman 27.74
23.Dodge & Cox Int'l 26.31
24. Perkins Mid Cap Value 25.92
25. Oakmark Eq & Income 24.25
26. TRP Cap App 22.43
27. FPA Crescent 21.95
28. Litman-Gregy MS Int'l 21.47
29. Third Ave. Value 18.84
30. Franklin Income 14.23
2013 was a year in which stocks hugely outperformed bonds or cash, so funds that were fully invested in equities show up at the top. It was a year in which domestic (USA) stocks outperformed foreign stocks, so foreign and international funds are found low on the list. It was a year in which small and mid-cap stocks outperformed larger stocks. Finally, it was a year in which quality shares tended to underperform, and in which more speculative fare tended to outperform.
All in all, it was the best year for US stocks in nearly 20 years.
MFM Fund of the Year? Ariel Fund. Congratulations to John Rogers and the team.
2013 Final Standings
Top 10
1. Ariel +44.68%
2. Kinetics Paradigm 44.07
3. Bridgeway Aggressive 42.21
4. Franklin Sm-Mid Cap 38.58
5. Janus Contrarian 38.51
6. TRP Mid Cap Growth 36.89
7. Franklin Balance Sheet 36.61
8. Col. Val. & Restructg 35.96
9. Mairs & Power Grwth 35.64
10. Fairholme 35.54
The Great Unwashed (#11-20)
11. Sequoia 34.58
12.Fidelity Contra 34.15
13. Osterweis 33.84
14. VTSMX 33.52
15. Jenson Qty. Grwth 32.33
16. VDIGX 31.53
17. FMI Large Cap 30.48
18. Templeton Grwth 30.15
19. Royce Special Equity 29.36
20. TRP Spectrum Grwth 28.59
The Bottom Ten
21. Mutual Shares 28.10
22. Yacktman 27.74
23.Dodge & Cox Int'l 26.31
24. Perkins Mid Cap Value 25.92
25. Oakmark Eq & Income 24.25
26. TRP Cap App 22.43
27. FPA Crescent 21.95
28. Litman-Gregy MS Int'l 21.47
29. Third Ave. Value 18.84
30. Franklin Income 14.23
Monday, December 30, 2013
A Little MFM Math Problem
This is taken from just last week:
Ariel Fund is up 41.42% for the year coming into the trading day.
For the day, Ariel increases by 1.06%.
Now how much is Ariel Fund up for the year?
The Moron's knee-jerk answer was, of course, 42.48%.
The Moron's knee-jerk answer was, of course, wrong.
The right answer, for reasons that become obvious upon just a small amount of reflection:
42.92%
Ariel Fund is up 41.42% for the year coming into the trading day.
For the day, Ariel increases by 1.06%.
Now how much is Ariel Fund up for the year?
The Moron's knee-jerk answer was, of course, 42.48%.
The Moron's knee-jerk answer was, of course, wrong.
The right answer, for reasons that become obvious upon just a small amount of reflection:
42.92%
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Two Days to Go in 2013
With two days to go in 2013, we still don't have a Fund of the Year. Over at Morningstar, the Fund of the year is chosen by committee, based on a complex and esoteric formula which probably includes objective, subjective, and whimsical factors. Here at MFM, nothing is complex, and we don't even know what esoteric means! Our Fund of the Year is simply that fund which gains the most (or loses the least) in a given calendar year.
Last year, Fairhome ran away with it early, and never looked back. Fairholme will probably end up in the top ten this year, and may even best its percentage gain from last year, but only 2 funds are in the running for fund of the year. Those funds are Kinetics Paradigm Fund and Ariel Fund. Kinetics Paradigm led by a few percentage points for the last several months, but Ariel had a little surge in the past week, and currently it's like this:
Ariel ......................... +44.07%
Kinetics Paradigm..... + 43.48%
Either fund could win it. It will just come down to two trading days and simple dumb luck.
Last year, Fairhome ran away with it early, and never looked back. Fairholme will probably end up in the top ten this year, and may even best its percentage gain from last year, but only 2 funds are in the running for fund of the year. Those funds are Kinetics Paradigm Fund and Ariel Fund. Kinetics Paradigm led by a few percentage points for the last several months, but Ariel had a little surge in the past week, and currently it's like this:
Ariel ......................... +44.07%
Kinetics Paradigm..... + 43.48%
Either fund could win it. It will just come down to two trading days and simple dumb luck.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Royce Special Equity and Molex
Molex Class A was up 55% yesterday on a takeover announcement. At last report, this stock was the second largest position in Royce Special Equity Fund -- a position comprising over 4% of assets.
A little rough arithmetic: 55% x .04 = 2.2%
So Molex alone added about 2.2% to the days gains.
RYSEX for the day was up by 3.7%
Cool.
This has happened before with stocks in the Royce Special Equity Fund. The nature of the stocks the fund holds makes them attractive takeover targets. Without a catalyst, the stocks can also languish, as they might be considered by some to be a little "boring". One can never count on takeover activity, but it's always nice when it happens.
A little rough arithmetic: 55% x .04 = 2.2%
So Molex alone added about 2.2% to the days gains.
RYSEX for the day was up by 3.7%
Cool.
This has happened before with stocks in the Royce Special Equity Fund. The nature of the stocks the fund holds makes them attractive takeover targets. Without a catalyst, the stocks can also languish, as they might be considered by some to be a little "boring". One can never count on takeover activity, but it's always nice when it happens.
Friday, June 14, 2013
Ten Year Numbers 6/13/13
As the Moron so wisely predicted, the ten-year annualized returns of all of the MFM 30 has fallen significantly as the massive, snap-back gains of 2003 fall of of the back of the sample period. This is despite the strong performance of the markets over the past few months.
It is truly amazing that ten-year annualized numbers can change so quickly, but that is the nauture of market extremes. This current snapshot is just about three months out from the 10 year anniversary of the market low when we last took a look. Many, many funds are down over 2% on an annualized basis since that time. Our top performer, Dodge and Cox International, for example has an annualized return that is 2.51% lower than it was just 3 months ago.
Not too many dramatic changes in rank position, but Litman Gregory Masters Select International fund fell out of the top 10 to #11, Royce Special Equity bounded from #11 to #7, and Fairholme shot up from #7 to #3.
It is interesting to note that the 10 year leader, Dodge and Cox International ranks #28 out of 30 for the year to date period and that Bridgeway Aggressive Growth, dead last in these 10 year numbers, leads the pack at #1 so far year-to-date -- the only MFM fund up over 20%.
Numbers in Parentheses represent the rank as of our last report in March, and the change in position if any.
A couple of tweaks to the MFM30. Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX) replaces Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index (VDAIX). Which will do better over time is more or less a coin flip, but VDIGX has a ten year record. Also, we are dropping Wasatch Heritage Growth (WAHGX). The Moron does not dislike the fund, but its inclusion was motivated by the belief that it was owned by the Moron's son. It seems that he no longer owns it.
We are adding the widely owned and seemingly excellent balanced fund T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX).
Kind of cool that The Vanguard Total Stock Market index shows an annualized return of exactly 8.00% for this period. It fell 3 positions, which means that more of our funds are currently beating this major, major Bogey.
Here we go........................
THE TOP TEN
1. Dodge and Cox International (1--no change) +11.45%
2. T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth (2--no change) 11.31
3. Fairholme (7--up four) 11.12
4. Yacktman (3--down one) 10.90
5. Janus Mid-Cap Value (6--up one) 10.04
6. Janus Contrarian (5--down one) 10.01
7. Royce Special Equity (11--up four) 10.00
8. Fidelity Contra (10--up two) 9.99
9. FMI Large Cap (8--down one) 9.96
10. Kinetics Paradigm (9--down one) 9.80
THE GREAT UNWASHED (#11-20)
11. Litman Gregory Masters Int'l (4--down seven) 9.67
12. T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (new) 9.40
13.Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (new) 9.26
14. FPA Crescent (15-- up one) 9.13
15.Mairs and Power Growth (15 (tie) no change) 8.98
16. Osterweis (17--up one) 8.90
17. Col. Value/ Restructuring (12-- down five) 8.67
18. Franklin Small/Mid Gr (14-- down four) 8.63
19. Franklin Balance Sheet (20-- up one) 8.55
20. Price Spectrum Growth (13-- down seven) 8.54
THE BOTTOM TEN (#21-30)
21. Sequoia (24-- up three) 8.52
22. Oakmark Balanced (22-- no change) 8.11
23. Vanguard Ttl Stck Mkt Idx (19-- down four) 8.00
24. Third Avenue Value (18-- down six) 7.98
25. Franklin Income (21-- down four) 7.84
26. Mutual Shares (27-- up one) 7.36
27. Ariel (23-- down four) 7.29
28. Templeton Growth (26-- down two) 6.51
29. Jenson (28-- down one) 6.41
30. Bridgeway Agressive (25-- down five) 6.14
It is truly amazing that ten-year annualized numbers can change so quickly, but that is the nauture of market extremes. This current snapshot is just about three months out from the 10 year anniversary of the market low when we last took a look. Many, many funds are down over 2% on an annualized basis since that time. Our top performer, Dodge and Cox International, for example has an annualized return that is 2.51% lower than it was just 3 months ago.
Not too many dramatic changes in rank position, but Litman Gregory Masters Select International fund fell out of the top 10 to #11, Royce Special Equity bounded from #11 to #7, and Fairholme shot up from #7 to #3.
It is interesting to note that the 10 year leader, Dodge and Cox International ranks #28 out of 30 for the year to date period and that Bridgeway Aggressive Growth, dead last in these 10 year numbers, leads the pack at #1 so far year-to-date -- the only MFM fund up over 20%.
Numbers in Parentheses represent the rank as of our last report in March, and the change in position if any.
A couple of tweaks to the MFM30. Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX) replaces Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index (VDAIX). Which will do better over time is more or less a coin flip, but VDIGX has a ten year record. Also, we are dropping Wasatch Heritage Growth (WAHGX). The Moron does not dislike the fund, but its inclusion was motivated by the belief that it was owned by the Moron's son. It seems that he no longer owns it.
We are adding the widely owned and seemingly excellent balanced fund T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX).
Kind of cool that The Vanguard Total Stock Market index shows an annualized return of exactly 8.00% for this period. It fell 3 positions, which means that more of our funds are currently beating this major, major Bogey.
Here we go........................
THE TOP TEN
1. Dodge and Cox International (1--no change) +11.45%
2. T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth (2--no change) 11.31
3. Fairholme (7--up four) 11.12
4. Yacktman (3--down one) 10.90
5. Janus Mid-Cap Value (6--up one) 10.04
6. Janus Contrarian (5--down one) 10.01
7. Royce Special Equity (11--up four) 10.00
8. Fidelity Contra (10--up two) 9.99
9. FMI Large Cap (8--down one) 9.96
10. Kinetics Paradigm (9--down one) 9.80
THE GREAT UNWASHED (#11-20)
11. Litman Gregory Masters Int'l (4--down seven) 9.67
12. T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (new) 9.40
13.Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (new) 9.26
14. FPA Crescent (15-- up one) 9.13
15.Mairs and Power Growth (15 (tie) no change) 8.98
16. Osterweis (17--up one) 8.90
17. Col. Value/ Restructuring (12-- down five) 8.67
18. Franklin Small/Mid Gr (14-- down four) 8.63
19. Franklin Balance Sheet (20-- up one) 8.55
20. Price Spectrum Growth (13-- down seven) 8.54
THE BOTTOM TEN (#21-30)
21. Sequoia (24-- up three) 8.52
22. Oakmark Balanced (22-- no change) 8.11
23. Vanguard Ttl Stck Mkt Idx (19-- down four) 8.00
24. Third Avenue Value (18-- down six) 7.98
25. Franklin Income (21-- down four) 7.84
26. Mutual Shares (27-- up one) 7.36
27. Ariel (23-- down four) 7.29
28. Templeton Growth (26-- down two) 6.51
29. Jenson (28-- down one) 6.41
30. Bridgeway Agressive (25-- down five) 6.14
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Happy Anniversary
March 11, 2013 was the 10th anniversary of the stock market low hit in 2013. Technically speaking, this was a secondary, higher low than that reached a couple of months earlier, but this was the point when the market finally turned around, after dreadful years in 2000 and 2001, and the bloodbath that was 2002.
Numbers are a wonderful way to lie, and the high annualized 10 year returns listed below should certainly be taken with a grain of salt. These are the highest annualized 10 year returns we will be able to report for at least a few years, very possibly for many years.
These returns absolutely exclude all of the extreme losses of that extended bear market, and begin their sample period with the robust, bounce-back gains of 2003. As the days tick by, the outsized gains of 2003 are falling off of the back end of the ten year period, and the 10 year annualized gains of virtually all funds will be dropping.
This listing rewards funds that may have had huge losses in the bear market but that snapped back sharply when the upturn began. By the same token, relatively speaking, it seriously understates the value of funds that may have preserved capital during the bear market, but that exhibited more modest returns in the period following.
Anyway, it is what it is, and here are the numbers (annualized), for the 28 funds from the MFM30 that have 10 year returns (Value in parenthesis is value of $10,000 invested at the beginning of the period:
1. Dodge and Cox International 13.96% ($36,942)
Somehow snuck into the 10 year lead when the Moron wasn't watching. As its nearly 50% gain of 2003 falls off of the sample period, it will be awfully hard for it to maintain its perch atop the list.
2. T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth 13.72
Our former leader, edged out of the #1 for now.
3. Yacktman 12.98
Maybe the most impressive of all, because we know it held up well during the bear market that preceded this 10 year period.
4. Litman Gregory International 12.41
Up 15 positions since our last 10 year list!
5. Janus Contrarian 12.32
Up 7 positions from our last list. This number will most likely be dropping like a rock.
6. Janus Mid-Cap Value 11.97
Another fund that held up well during the preceding bear market.
7. Fairholme 11.91 ($30,810)
Bruce Berkowitz has strongly implied that he expects to be able to compound in the high teens. We need some awfully good years ahead to achieve this.
8. FMI Large Cap 11.77 ($30,427)
9. Kinetics Paradigm 11.73
10. Fidelity Contra 11.43
11. Royce Special Equity 11.10
12. Columbia Value & Restructuring 10.94
13. T Rowe Price Spectrum Growth 10.86
14. Franklin Small-Midcap Growth 10.65
15. FPA Crescent 10.53 ($27,215)
Certainly achieved its goal of equity-like returns, with less risk than the overall stock market. The Moron is impressed.
15. (tie) Mairs and Power Growth 10.53
17. Osterweis 10.19
18. Third Avenue Value 9.99
19. Vanguard Total Stock Market 9.83 ($25, 539)
This is what the market was willing to give you, minus just a teeny tiny bit.
20. Franklin Balance Sheet 9.82
21. Franklin Income 9.47
Certainly helped by falling interest rates, but a nice showing for a balanced fund nevertheless.
22. Oakmark Balanced 9.40
23. Ariel 9.38
In contrast to its abysmal performance in 2008, Ariel actually did very well in 200, 2001, and 2002. So we can live with this showing.
24. Sequoia 9.33
25. Bridgeway Agressive Growth 8.70
Probably the biggest disappointment on the list. This low number will only be falling as the 54% gain of 2003 fall out of the sample period.
26. Templeton Growth 8.46
Up from last place. Held up great during the Bear Market of 2000-2002, so that makes this number more acceptable. We'll put this somewhere on the borderline between acceptable and disappointing. Looks like a good management team is now in place. Past few years have been encouraging. Looking for better days ahead.
27. Mutual Shares 8.38
A risk-averse fund one would expect to find near the bottom in a sample period such as this one.
28. Jenson Quality Growth 7.83 ($21,252)
ditto
Numbers are a wonderful way to lie, and the high annualized 10 year returns listed below should certainly be taken with a grain of salt. These are the highest annualized 10 year returns we will be able to report for at least a few years, very possibly for many years.
These returns absolutely exclude all of the extreme losses of that extended bear market, and begin their sample period with the robust, bounce-back gains of 2003. As the days tick by, the outsized gains of 2003 are falling off of the back end of the ten year period, and the 10 year annualized gains of virtually all funds will be dropping.
This listing rewards funds that may have had huge losses in the bear market but that snapped back sharply when the upturn began. By the same token, relatively speaking, it seriously understates the value of funds that may have preserved capital during the bear market, but that exhibited more modest returns in the period following.
Anyway, it is what it is, and here are the numbers (annualized), for the 28 funds from the MFM30 that have 10 year returns (Value in parenthesis is value of $10,000 invested at the beginning of the period:
1. Dodge and Cox International 13.96% ($36,942)
Somehow snuck into the 10 year lead when the Moron wasn't watching. As its nearly 50% gain of 2003 falls off of the sample period, it will be awfully hard for it to maintain its perch atop the list.
2. T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth 13.72
Our former leader, edged out of the #1 for now.
3. Yacktman 12.98
Maybe the most impressive of all, because we know it held up well during the bear market that preceded this 10 year period.
4. Litman Gregory International 12.41
Up 15 positions since our last 10 year list!
5. Janus Contrarian 12.32
Up 7 positions from our last list. This number will most likely be dropping like a rock.
6. Janus Mid-Cap Value 11.97
Another fund that held up well during the preceding bear market.
7. Fairholme 11.91 ($30,810)
Bruce Berkowitz has strongly implied that he expects to be able to compound in the high teens. We need some awfully good years ahead to achieve this.
 |
| "My favorite mutual fund has been compounding my capital at over 11% per annum!" |
8. FMI Large Cap 11.77 ($30,427)
9. Kinetics Paradigm 11.73
10. Fidelity Contra 11.43
11. Royce Special Equity 11.10
12. Columbia Value & Restructuring 10.94
13. T Rowe Price Spectrum Growth 10.86
14. Franklin Small-Midcap Growth 10.65
 |
| "I should have invested in the Yacktman fund...." |
15. FPA Crescent 10.53 ($27,215)
Certainly achieved its goal of equity-like returns, with less risk than the overall stock market. The Moron is impressed.
15. (tie) Mairs and Power Growth 10.53
17. Osterweis 10.19
18. Third Avenue Value 9.99
19. Vanguard Total Stock Market 9.83 ($25, 539)
This is what the market was willing to give you, minus just a teeny tiny bit.
20. Franklin Balance Sheet 9.82
21. Franklin Income 9.47
Certainly helped by falling interest rates, but a nice showing for a balanced fund nevertheless.
 |
| "Just what IS a mutual fund anyway?" |
22. Oakmark Balanced 9.40
23. Ariel 9.38
In contrast to its abysmal performance in 2008, Ariel actually did very well in 200, 2001, and 2002. So we can live with this showing.
24. Sequoia 9.33
25. Bridgeway Agressive Growth 8.70
Probably the biggest disappointment on the list. This low number will only be falling as the 54% gain of 2003 fall out of the sample period.
26. Templeton Growth 8.46
Up from last place. Held up great during the Bear Market of 2000-2002, so that makes this number more acceptable. We'll put this somewhere on the borderline between acceptable and disappointing. Looks like a good management team is now in place. Past few years have been encouraging. Looking for better days ahead.
27. Mutual Shares 8.38
A risk-averse fund one would expect to find near the bottom in a sample period such as this one.
28. Jenson Quality Growth 7.83 ($21,252)
ditto
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