Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Gaudy Numbers for 2012

    The numbers for 2012 are pretty gaudy. Everybody feels like a genius when we have a year like this one. Even the Moron feels a little smarter. The range goes from the big winner, Fairholme, all the way down to the worst performing fund, Oakmark Balanced, which still made 9%.

    Vanguard Total Stock Market finished relatively high for 2012, 12th out of 30 funds. The last time we ran the 10 years numbers, it finished 20th out of 28th.  All but one of our funds that trailed VTSMX in 2012 have equaled or  beaten it over the trailing 10 year period. Comments are offered for Jenson, the only fund to trail it both for 2012 and the trailing 10 year period. (For this purpose, 10 year numbers as of  2/12/2013 were used.

    It became obvious quite early in the year that Fairholme was going to run away with the race in 2012, this after a terrible 2011. So props to our first MFM fund of the year, Fairholme!

    And here are the gaudy numbers we are talking about for the MFM30:

1. Fairholme                                 +35.81%
2. Third Avenue Value                   27.48
3. Janus Contrarian                        23.83
4. Mairs & Power Growth Fund     21.91
5. Kinetics Paradigm                       21.78
6. Bridgeway Agressive                  21.58
7. Templeton Growth                      21.54
8. Dodge and Cox Foreign              21.03
9. Ariel                                             20.32
10. Litman Gregory Masters Int'l    19.96















11. T. Rowe Price Spectrum Growth         18.13
12. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index     16.38
13. Fidelity Contra                                    16.26
14. Sequoia                                              15.68
15. Franklin Balance Sheet                        15.65
16. Royce Special Equity                           15.36
17. Mutual Shares                                     15.14
18. FMI Large Cap                                  14.86
19. T. Rowe Price Mid Cap Growth         13.91
20. Columbia Value and Restructuring       13.90
















21. Franklin Income                                 13.68
22. Osterweis                                            13.66
23. Jenson                                                 13.54
Highest quality stocks only, much of the 10 year underperformance is attributable to fees and expenses. Much but not all of it. True, it has beaten VTSMX over the trailing 15 year period, but still, the results on this one have to be considered a disappointment, so why does Morningstar rate it a "Gold"?

24. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index  11.50
25. Yacktman                                                 11.47
26. Franklin Small Mid Cap Growth             10.78
27. FPA Crescent                                           10.33
28. Perkins Mid Cap Value                           10.32
29. Wasatch Heritage Growth                         9.45
30. Oakmark Balanced                                    9.05


Quite a good year.

But even a Moron knows not to get used to it.