Fifteen Year Numbers as of 3/4/14

    Running the 15 year numbers for the MFM30 yielded a most unexpected result. The Moron is truly mystified. Dear Reader, please help if you can.

    We are not trying to prove anything or make a point. This is not a rhetorical question, but a real one.

    "Why is Vanguard Total Stock Market Index dead last -- and last by a large margin? And why is the quasi- index fund Vanguard Dividend Income Fund next to last?

    Why? Why? Why? Why? Why?

    These funds enjoy ultra-low costs and due to low turnover, they enjoy reduced trading costs as well. It is very difficult to identify in advance funds that will beat the indexes. One would expect these funds to be somewhere in the middle of the pack, probably a little higher. And yet, everything beat them.

    Growth Funds beat them, Value Funds beat them. Hybrid Funds beat them, Eclectic Funds beat them. Balanced funds, foreign funds, world funds, small caps, large caps, mid caps -- everything beat them. Just what is going on?

    Was there something special about this 15 year period? Was the Moron just lucky? It seems far too unlikely to be luck.

    Okay, it is true that the MFM30 was only put together within the last couple of years, and naturally, funds were selected that had performed above average.

    However, the Moron has continuously owned 10 of these funds over the past 15 years (indicated with an asterisk, and each and every one of them beat the Index. The Moron has no special powers or knowledge. So why was each and every one able to beat the Total Stock Market Index?


26 of the MFM30 have 15 year records. Here are the annualized 15-year numbers as of 3/4/14.

1. Perkins Mid Cap Value *                  12.25%
2. Royce Special Equity                       11.88
3. Bridgeway Agressive Growth *           11.42
4. TRP Mid Cap Growth *                    10.79
5. Yacktman                                        10.74
6. TRP Capital Appreciation                 10.61
7. Oakmark Balanced                          10.13
8. Mairs and Power Growth                 10.02
9. FPA Crescent                                    9.94
10. Osterweiss                                       9.88
11. Ariel *                                               9.64
12. Franklin Balance Sheet  *                  9.57
13. FMI Large Cap                               9.04

14.Litman Gregory MS Int'l                  8.85
15. Col. Value & Restructuring             8.71
16. Franklin Small Mid Growth *              8.63
17. Franklin Income *                               8.49
18. Third Avenue Value                         8.47
19. Sequoia                                           8.03
20. Fidelity Contrafund *                         7.98
21. Mutual Shares *                                7.85
22. Templeton Growth  *                         7.76
23. TRP Spectrum Growth                     7.29
24. Jenson                                              6.98
25. Vanguard Dividend Growth               5.70
26 Vanguard Total Stock Market Index  5.55              

Follow Up on Letter to Charlie Dreifus

    Haven't heard back from Charlie Dreifus yet, but the offending ad seems to have vanished completely, and as it did, the stocks in Charlie's portfolio seemed to blast upward with renewed power. 2% and 3% moves per day in his companies were commonplace.

    Royce Special Equity launched out of last place, as the Moron has been promising it would.

    Looks like we're back on track. No "Brilliant Investor" ads and no most Last Place-ism.

    The Moron asks for no credit for any of this, and certainly will not receive any, but is glad to help when he can.

The Headlines vs. the Numbers

Here are the Headlines on morningstar.com this evening:

U.S. Stocks Tumble; 
Dow Slides By Triple Digits

and

Stocks End Sharply Lower
as Ukraine Fears Mount

Here is the stock photo they trotted out:

Here are the actual numbers:

NASDAQ      - 0.72%
S&P 500        - 0.74%
DJIA              -0.94%


(The Moron senses a bit of a disconnect.)