Friday, June 14, 2013

Ten Year Numbers 6/13/13

    As the Moron so wisely predicted, the ten-year annualized returns of all of the MFM 30 has fallen significantly as the massive, snap-back gains of 2003 fall of of the back of the sample period. This is despite the strong performance of the markets over the past few months.

    It is truly amazing that ten-year annualized numbers can change so quickly, but that is the nauture of market extremes. This current snapshot is just about three months out from the 10 year anniversary of the market low when we last took a look. Many, many funds are down over 2% on an annualized basis since that time. Our top performer, Dodge and Cox International, for example has an annualized return that is 2.51% lower than it was just 3 months ago.

    Not too many dramatic changes in rank position, but Litman Gregory Masters Select International fund fell out of the top 10 to #11, Royce Special Equity bounded from #11 to #7, and Fairholme shot up from #7 to #3.

    It is interesting to note that the 10 year leader, Dodge and Cox International ranks #28 out of 30 for the year to date period and that Bridgeway Aggressive Growth, dead last in these 10 year numbers, leads the pack at #1 so far year-to-date -- the only MFM fund up over 20%.

    Numbers in Parentheses represent the rank as of our last report in March, and the change in position if any.

    A couple of tweaks to the MFM30. Vanguard Dividend Growth (VDIGX) replaces Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index (VDAIX). Which will do better over time is more or less a coin flip, but VDIGX has a ten year record. Also, we are dropping Wasatch Heritage Growth (WAHGX). The Moron does not dislike the fund, but its inclusion was motivated by the belief that it was owned by the Moron's son. It seems that he no longer owns it.

    We are adding the widely owned and seemingly excellent balanced fund T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (PRWCX).

    Kind of cool that The Vanguard Total Stock Market index shows an annualized return of exactly 8.00% for this period. It fell 3 positions, which means that more of our funds are currently beating this major, major Bogey.

Here we go........................

THE TOP TEN

1. Dodge and Cox International  (1--no change)    +11.45%

2. T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth (2--no change)  11.31

3. Fairholme (7--up four)                                         11.12

4. Yacktman (3--down one)                                     10.90

5. Janus Mid-Cap Value (6--up one)                       10.04

6. Janus Contrarian (5--down one)                          10.01

7. Royce Special Equity (11--up four)                    10.00

8. Fidelity Contra (10--up two)                                 9.99

9. FMI Large Cap (8--down one)                             9.96

10. Kinetics Paradigm (9--down one)                      9.80




THE GREAT UNWASHED (#11-20)

11. Litman Gregory Masters Int'l (4--down seven)  9.67

12. T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation (new)       9.40

13.Vanguard Dividend Appreciation (new)            9.26

14. FPA Crescent (15-- up one)                              9.13

15.Mairs and Power Growth (15 (tie) no change)  8.98

16. Osterweis (17--up one)                                     8.90

17. Col. Value/ Restructuring (12-- down five)     8.67

18. Franklin Small/Mid Gr   (14-- down four)      8.63

19. Franklin Balance Sheet (20-- up one)                 8.55

20. Price Spectrum Growth (13-- down seven)    8.54




THE BOTTOM TEN (#21-30)

21. Sequoia (24-- up three)                                  8.52

22. Oakmark Balanced (22-- no change)           8.11

23. Vanguard Ttl Stck Mkt Idx (19-- down four)  8.00

24. Third Avenue Value (18-- down six)            7.98

25. Franklin Income (21-- down four)               7.84

26. Mutual Shares (27-- up one)                       7.36

27. Ariel (23-- down four)                                7.29

28. Templeton Growth (26-- down two)           6.51

29. Jenson (28-- down one)                             6.41

30. Bridgeway Agressive (25-- down five)     6.14