Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Happy Anniversary

    March 11, 2013 was the 10th anniversary of the stock market low hit in 2013. Technically speaking, this was a secondary, higher low than that reached a couple of months earlier, but this was the point when the market finally turned around, after dreadful years in 2000 and 2001, and the bloodbath that was 2002.

    Numbers are a wonderful way to lie, and the high annualized 10 year returns listed below should certainly be taken with a grain of salt. These are the highest annualized 10 year returns we will be able to report for at least a few years, very possibly for many years.

    These returns absolutely exclude all of the extreme losses of that extended bear market, and begin their sample period with the robust, bounce-back gains of 2003. As the days tick by, the outsized gains of 2003 are falling off of the back end of the ten year period, and the 10 year annualized gains of virtually all funds will be dropping.

    This listing rewards funds that may have had huge losses in the bear market but that snapped back sharply when the upturn began. By the same token, relatively speaking, it seriously understates the value of funds that may have preserved capital during the bear market, but that exhibited more modest returns in the period following.

    Anyway, it is what it is, and here are the numbers (annualized), for the 28 funds from the MFM30 that have 10 year returns (Value in parenthesis is value of $10,000 invested at the beginning of the period:

1. Dodge and Cox International     13.96%      ($36,942)

    Somehow snuck into the 10 year lead when the Moron wasn't watching. As its nearly 50% gain of 2003 falls off of the sample period, it will be awfully hard for it to maintain its perch atop the list.

2. T. Rowe Price Mid-Cap Growth    13.72

    Our former leader, edged out of the #1 for now.

3. Yacktman                                       12.98

    Maybe the most impressive of all, because we know it held up well during the bear market that preceded this 10 year period.

4. Litman Gregory International        12.41

    Up 15 positions since our last 10 year list!

5. Janus Contrarian                             12.32

   Up 7 positions from our last list. This number will most likely be dropping like a rock.

6. Janus Mid-Cap Value                    11.97

    Another fund that held up well during the preceding bear market.

7. Fairholme                                     11.91    ($30,810)

    Bruce Berkowitz has strongly implied that he expects to be able to compound in the high teens. We need some awfully good years ahead to achieve this.


"My favorite mutual fund has been compounding my capital at over 11% per annum!"




8. FMI Large Cap                            11.77    ($30,427)

9. Kinetics Paradigm                       11.73

10. Fidelity Contra                          11.43

11. Royce Special Equity               11.10

12. Columbia Value & Restructuring    10.94

13. T Rowe Price Spectrum Growth    10.86

14. Franklin Small-Midcap Growth     10.65

"I should have invested in the Yacktman fund...."


15. FPA Crescent                               10.53     ($27,215)

    Certainly achieved its goal of equity-like returns, with less risk than the overall stock market. The Moron is impressed.

15. (tie) Mairs and Power Growth           10.53

17. Osterweis                                     10.19

18. Third Avenue Value                   9.99

19. Vanguard Total Stock Market     9.83       ($25, 539)

    This is what the market was willing to give you, minus just a teeny tiny bit.

20. Franklin Balance Sheet               9.82

21. Franklin Income                         9.47

    Certainly helped by falling interest rates, but a nice showing for a balanced fund nevertheless.

"Just what IS a mutual fund anyway?"


22. Oakmark Balanced                     9.40

23. Ariel                                      9.38

    In contrast to its abysmal performance in 2008, Ariel actually did very well in 200, 2001, and 2002. So we can live with this showing.

24. Sequoia                               9.33

25. Bridgeway Agressive Growth   8.70

    Probably the biggest disappointment on the list. This low number will only be falling as the 54% gain of 2003 fall out of the sample period.

26. Templeton Growth               8.46

    Up from last place. Held up great during the Bear Market of 2000-2002, so that makes this number more acceptable. We'll put this somewhere on the borderline between acceptable and disappointing. Looks like a good management team is now in place. Past few years have been encouraging. Looking for better days ahead.

27. Mutual Shares                8.38

    A risk-averse fund one would expect to find near the bottom in a sample period such as this one.

28. Jenson Quality Growth   7.83    ($21,252)

ditto


          

   

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