THE NEW MOON STOCK MARKET INDICATOR tm

 

The New moon Stock Market indicator has failed only once in well over 100 years.

    Especially for those who find themselves disheartened or trepidacious because of the negative prognostication of the January Indicator, or the even more negative prophecy of the "Revised and Improved January Indicator", or because of our current market's "eerie similarity to 1929", the Mutual Fund Moron proudly presents, for the very first time, from deep within the vaults of the MFM research center:

THE NEW MOON STOCK MARKET INDICATOR tm


.....and the results are very encouraging!

    The New Moon came on New Year's Day this year, a phenomenon which occurs every 19 years. How has the US market performed in those years?

    We are able to trace the performance of the DJIA, an index which extends back over 100 years, to find the answer. Here are the results:

Annual Performance of the DJIA for years in which a NEW MOON occurs on New year's Day:

1900                  + 7.6%

1919                  + 30.5%

1938                  + 28%

1957                  - 12.8%

1976                  + 17.9%

1995                  + 33.5%

    In well over a century, the NEW MOON STOCK MARKET INDICATOR tm has failed to predict a positive result in the stock market in only one year, 1957, a year which saw only a modest decline of 12.8%.

    The average gain correctly predicted by the NEW MOON STOCK MARKET INDICATOR tm over the past 100 years, is 27.5%.

    The NEW MOON STOCK MARKET INDICATOR tm has an accuracy rate of over 83%.

Ergo.....we may state with exceeding certitude, that the stock market in 2014 has over an 83% chance of enjoying a positive year.

    Remember, dear readers, you read it here first, on the Mutual Fund Moron blog. Take heed now, and be ready again in 2033.